Polymarket Rejects Its Oracle Service In The Prediction Market Rarity

Polymarket, a leading cryptocurrency-based prediction market platform, has declared that it will overturn a ruling from decentralised oracle service UMA.

TakeAway Points:

  • Prediction markets are set to be stirred by Polymarket’s intention to overturn UMA’s ruling regarding Barron Trump’s participation in the DJT memecoin.
  • More than $1 million was bet on the result, and UMA first decided “no” based on votes by token holders.
  • Because of the ongoing disagreements and public assertions made by Martin Shkreli over Barron’s involvement, the DJT token declined 7%.

Polymarket Contests UMA’s Decision

The controversy centers around a prediction market asking whether Barron Trump, son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, was involved in the creation of a meme coin called DJT. UMA had resolved the market multiple times with a “no” answer, but Polymarket believes this decision was incorrect and plans to announce a corrective measure soon.

The DJT Token

The DJT token, themed around the Trump family, has been the subject of intense speculation and controversy. Neither the Trump campaign nor Barron Trump have confirmed or denied any involvement with the token

The prediction market on Polymarket was designed to resolve to “Yes” if evidence suggested Barron Trump was involved in creating the Solana-based token, and “No” otherwise. UMA, the decentralized resolver for this market, concluded with a “no” resolution after tokenholders overwhelmingly voted in that direction.

“This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if a preponderance of evidence suggests that Barron Trump was involved in the creation of the Solana token, $DJT. Otherwise this market will resolve to ‘No.’ Determination as to whether Barron was involved in the creation of $DJT will be made by this market’s decentralized resolver, UMA, and will take into account all available evidence as of 12 PM ET, June 23.” Shayne Coplan, CEO of Polymarket, said.

Despite the resolution, bettors who held “yes” shares have protested, arguing that the decision was flawed. Over $1 million was wagered on this market, making the stakes particularly high. Martin “Pharma Bro” Shkreli, who was convicted, has been vocal in his claims that Barron Trump was involved, even posting screenshots on X (formerly Twitter) suggesting that Barron was being advised by lawyers to remain silent.

UMA’s Past Controversies 

This is not the first time UMA’s role as a decentralized oracle has come under scrutiny. Last fall, questions arose about what it meant to “find” the missing OceanGate submersible, which imploded near the Titanic wreckage. 

More recently, in May, UMA faced criticism over its resolution of a market questioning whether an Ethereum exchange-traded fund (ETF) had been approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission. In both instances, UMA’s decisions were met with skepticism from some bettors.

The current controversy with the DJT token has further strained the relationship between Polymarket and UMA. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan has not yet commented on what the fix for this issue will be or when it will be implemented.

About UMA

UMA Optimistic Oracle allows contracts to quickly request and receive data information. The Optimistic Oracle acts as a generalized escalation game between contracts that initiate a price request and UMA’s dispute resolution system known as the Data Verification Mechanism (DVM). Prices proposed by the Optimistic Oracle will not be sent to the DVM unless it is disputed.

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